Data-Driven Prediction and Optimization of Energy Use for Transit Fleets of Electric and ICE Vehicles

Due to the high upfront cost of electric vehicles, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of internal-combustion and electric vehicles. Optimizing the operation of such mixed fleets is challenging because it requires accurate trip-level predictions of electricity and fuel use as well as efficient algorithms for assigning vehicles to transit routes. We present a novel framework for the data-driven prediction of trip-level energy use for mixed-vehicle transit fleets and for the optimization of vehicle assignments, which we evaluate using data collected from the bus fleet of CARTA, the public transit agency of Chattanooga, TN. We first introduce a data collection, storage, and processing framework for system-level and high-frequency vehicle-level transit data, including domain-specific data cleansing methods. We train and evaluate machine learning models for energy prediction, demonstrating that deep neural networks attain the highest accuracy. Based on these predictions, we formulate the problem of minimizing energy use through assigning vehicles to fixed-route transit trips. We propose an optimal integer program as well as efficient heuristic and meta-heuristic algorithms, demonstrating the scalability and performance of these algorithms numerically using the transit network of CARTA.